The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the biggest in history: 48 nations, 12 groups, and a new knockout bracket spanning Round of 32 through the Final. That’s 104 matches per tournament — and with this simulator you can run thousands of them in seconds.
What the simulator does
Every simulation generates a complete tournament from the group stage draw all the way to the champion. The engine uses:
- Real squad ratings — 1,104 players across 48 teams, with individual DF / MF / FW / OVR values
- xG-based match engine — expected goals calculated from squad strength ratios, then sampled via Poisson distribution
- Annex C bracket logic — all 495 valid combinations of best third-placed qualifiers resolved via FIFA’s official lookup table
- Full match events — goals, assists, yellow cards, red cards, injuries, and substitutions generated for every match
How to use it
- Choose a simulation count (200 to 2,000 — or 5,000 if you have time)
- Set the Upset Factor — lower means more favorites win, higher means more chaos
- Hit Simulate and watch the Overview panel populate with win probabilities, group qualifying rates, and championship odds
- Use Team Journey to see any team’s path through the knockout rounds
- Use Sim Browser to drill into individual simulations and replay full match reports
The Upset Factor explained
The Upset Factor (internally upex) is the exponent applied to the squad strength ratio when computing xG. At upex = 1.0, the rating difference is applied linearly and favorites win very often. At higher values (the “Many” end of the slider), the ratio is compressed, making upsets more likely. The default of 1.5 balances realism with unpredictability.
What’s next
Future updates will bring:
- Player-level scoring and assist leaders across all simulations
- Export to CSV / shareable URLs for individual sim results
- Historical accuracy benchmarking against Euro 2024 and Copa América 2024 results
- Turkish, Spanish, French, German, and Portuguese language support
Run your first simulation and find out: does your team go all the way?